Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2331
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
QX 2331 · STS → SAN
departs 10:49 AM PT · arrives 12:44 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 25%
Sat 10/31 27%
Sun 11/1 25%
Mon 11/2 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave STS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
STS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STS (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.