Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2353
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
QX 2353 · SEA → BIL
departs 3:53 PM PT · arrives 6:56 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Wed 10/28 13%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 25%
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 23%
Mon 11/2 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at BIL more than 15 minutes late?
21%
chance · ±3 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
21%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BIL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at BIL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BIL?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
3pm departures from SEA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
↓
BIL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
BIL (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.