Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2393
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
QX 2393 · SJC → SAN
departs 5:15 PM PT · arrives 6:56 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 28%
Sat 10/31 20%
Sun 11/1 26%
Mon 11/2 28%
Tue 11/3 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±4 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.