Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2405
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
QX 2405 · SEA → GPI
departs 9:57 AM PT · arrives 1:30 PM -05
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Wed 10/28 11%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 13%
Sat 10/31 13%
Sun 11/1 14%
Mon 11/2 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at GPI more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GPI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at GPI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GPI?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at GPI that day
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
GPI usually runs smoothly
↓
Arrivals into GPI at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 4,733 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
GPI (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.