Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2417
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
QX 2417 · ELP → SEA
departs 6:57 PM MT · arrives 9:23 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Thu 10/29
Sat 10/31 30%
Sun 11/1 32%
Mon 11/2 30%
Tue 11/3 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±2 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from ELP are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP
Weather at each end
ELP (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
SEA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.