Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2417
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
QX 2417 · SEA → ELP
departs 1:54 PM PT · arrives 6:36 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 24%
Sat 10/31 19%
Sun 11/1 23%
Mon 11/2 23%
Tue 11/3 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±2 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at ELP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ELP?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from SEA are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.04 in
ELP (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 8,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.