Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2472
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
QX 2472 · RNO → SAN
departs 7:31 AM PT · arrives 9:22 AM PT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 17%
Sat 10/31 23%
Sun 11/1 18%
Mon 11/2 20%
Tue 11/3 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±4 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
QX's recent on-time record
↑
This route's recent record
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
7am departures from RNO are usually not late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO
Weather at each end
RNO (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.