Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2473
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
QX 2473 · SAN → RNO
departs 7:20 PM PT · arrives 9:03 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Thu 10/29
Sat 10/31 19%
Sun 11/1 28%
Mon 11/2 31%
Tue 11/3 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at RNO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RNO?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
RNO (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.