Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2482
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
QX 2482 · LAS → SAN
departs 8:21 PM PT · arrives 9:43 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 30%
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 28%
Mon 11/2 25%
Tue 11/3 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±9 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
8pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
QX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.