Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2498
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
QX 2498 · SAN → SJC
departs 9:47 AM PT · arrives 11:25 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Wed 10/28 25%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 24%
Sat 10/31 22%
Sun 11/1 22%
Mon 11/2 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
9am departures from SAN are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
↓
Arrivals into SJC at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
SJC (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.