Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2509
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
QX 2509 · SEA → EAT
departs 11:08 PM PT · arrives 12:05 AM PT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Thu 10/29
Sat 10/31 14%
Sun 11/1 15%
Mon 11/2 15%
Tue 11/3 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at EAT more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
7.1d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at EAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EAT?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
↓
EAT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
EAT (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.