Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2510
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
QX 2510 · SAN → OAK
departs 9:29 PM PT · arrives 11:09 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 25%
Sat 10/31 14%
Sun 11/1 27%
Mon 11/2 23%
Tue 11/3 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±4 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from SAN are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.