Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA ROUGE · FLIGHT RV 1611 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

RV 1611 · FLL → YUL

departs 8:56 PM ET · arrives 12:26 AM EDT

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at YUL more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YUL?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from FLL are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FLL

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

FLL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YUL (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling4,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

RV 1611 · FLL → YUL

Odds over time

How late will it get to YUL?