RV 1641 · MCO → YUL

departs 8:36 PM ET · arrives 11:44 PM EDT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at YUL more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YUL?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at YUL

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ YUL usually runs smoothly

↓ Gusts to 26 kt forecast at MCO that day

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YUL (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

RV 1641 · MCO → YUL

Odds over time

How late will it get to YUL?