Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AVIANCA EL SALVADOR · FLIGHT TA 584 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

TA 584 · SAL → IAD

departs 11:26 AM CST · arrives 6:34 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft forecast at IAD that day

↓ IAD usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SAL (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

TA 584 · SAL → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?