Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

TAP AIR PORTUGAL · FLIGHT TP 238 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

TP 238 · SFO → LIS

departs 4:45 PM PT · arrives 10:01 AM WET

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at LIS more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±3 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LIS?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ SFO is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LIS

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LIS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

TP 238 · SFO → LIS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIS?