UA 1006 · DEN → BNA

took off 6:09 PM MT · expected to land 9:09 PM CT (scheduled 5:50 PM MT → 9:30 PM CT)

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BNA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1006 · DEN → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?