Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1153 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

UA 1153 · LAX → YVR

departs 10:59 AM PT · arrives 2:12 PM PDT

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at YVR more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YVR?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from LAX are often late

↑ LAX is busy at that time

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Arrivals into YVR at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

YVR (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling4,033 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1153 · LAX → YVR

Odds over time

How late will it get to YVR?