Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1175 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

UA 1175 · SFO → HNL

departs 9:20 AM PT · arrives 11:43 AM HT

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at HNL that day

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ This flight has been late 8% of the time recently

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.25 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1175 · SFO → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?