UA 1261 · EWR → BNA

took off 8:28 PM ET · expected to land 9:13 PM CT (scheduled 8:11 PM ET → 9:38 PM CT)

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BNA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 8pm departures from EWR are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1261 · EWR → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?