Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1268 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

UA 1268 · EWR → MCO

departs 3:13 PM ET · arrives 5:52 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±9 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from EWR are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1268 · EWR → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?