Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 126 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Yesterday

UA 126 · IAD → FCO

departs 11:01 PM ET · arrives 3:26 PM CET

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at FCO more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to FCO?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ Arrivals into FCO at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

FCO (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 126 · IAD → FCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to FCO?