UA 1274 · OGG → SFO

departs 2:14 PM HT · arrives 10:35 PM PT

Your aircraft is N27267 (B38M), coming in as UA 1986 from SFO: in the air, landing about 12:40 PM HT, 87 min before departure.

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts −13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 29 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at OGG that day

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ This flight has been late 11% of the time recently

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts29 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.28 in

SFO (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1274 · OGG → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?