UA 1294 · LAX → IAD

took off 10:52 PM PT · expected to land 6:06 AM ET (scheduled 10:53 PM PT → 6:45 AM ET)

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to IAD?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 10pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1294 · LAX → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?