Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1385 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

UA 1385 · IAD → LAX

departs 10:20 PM ET · arrives 12:57 AM PT

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 63h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↑ 10pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft forecast at IAD that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1385 · IAD → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?