UA 1394 · ORD → SAT

took off 9:49 PM CT · expected to land 12:05 AM CT (scheduled 8:38 PM CT → 11:37 PM CT)

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

96% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAT?

LIVE

On time or early
4%
15–30 min late
37%
30 min–1 hour late
59%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1394 · ORD → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?