UA 1439 · DFW → EWR

took off 7:48 PM CT · expected to land 11:37 PM ET (scheduled 7:37 PM CT → 12:03 AM ET)

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EWR?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 7pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

EWR (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1439 · DFW → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?