UA 1507 · DEN → MRY

took off 7:33 PM MT · expected to land 8:45 PM PT (scheduled 7:30 PM MT → 9:19 PM PT)

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MRY more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MRY?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MRY

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MRY (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1507 · DEN → MRY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MRY?