UA 1515 · SFO → MCI

departs 4:52 PM PT · arrives 10:21 PM CT

Your aircraft is N17444 (B39M), coming in as UA 2764 from IAH: landed 2:37 PM PT.

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ MCI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCI (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1515 · SFO → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?