UA 154 · HNL → MAJ

departs 6:55 AM HT · arrives 10:24 AM +12

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at MAJ more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MAJ?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at HNL that day

↓ 6am departures from HNL are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.06 in

MAJ (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 154 · HNL → MAJ

Odds over time

How late will it get to MAJ?