UA 1554 · SFO → SAT

departs 6:21 PM PT · arrives 12:00 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at SAT that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.23 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1554 · SFO → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?