Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1557 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

UA 1557 · ORD → BWI

departs 5:48 PM CT · arrives 8:50 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1557 · ORD → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?