Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1595 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

UA 1595 · ORD → MSN

departs 2:20 PM CT · arrives 3:22 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±2 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSN?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into MSN at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ MSN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSN (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1595 · ORD → MSN

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSN?