Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1643 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

UA 1643 · MCO → EWR

departs 1:45 PM ET · arrives 4:29 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 1pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.12 in

EWR (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1643 · MCO → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?