UA 1689 · LAX → FAT

took off 8:59 PM PT · expected to land 9:35 PM PT (scheduled 6:55 PM PT → 8:12 PM PT)

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to FAT?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
100%
Over 2 hours late
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from LAX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FAT (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceiling11,429 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1689 · LAX → FAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to FAT?