Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1749 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Today

UA 1749 · SFO → OGG

departs 4:40 PM PT · arrives 7:17 PM HT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to OGG?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Gusts to 29 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at OGG that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ This flight has been late 11% of the time recently

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OGG (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.26 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1749 · SFO → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?