Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1758 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

UA 1758 · DEN → KOA

departs 12:15 PM MT · arrives 3:37 PM HT

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to KOA?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at KOA

↑ 12pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ KOA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

KOA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1758 · DEN → KOA

Odds over time

How late will it get to KOA?