UA 1811 · ORD → SFO

departs 1:32 PM CT · arrives 4:17 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1811 · ORD → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?