UA 1820 · PLS → IAD

departs 5:04 PM EDT · arrives 8:32 PM ET

Your aircraft is N37437 (B739), coming in as UA 1817 from IAD: in the air, landing about 3:15 PM EDT, 102 min before departure.

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ 5pm departures from PLS are usually not late

Weather at each end

PLS (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1820 · PLS → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?