UA 1949 · SMF → IAH

departs 1:15 PM PT · arrives 7:10 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±3 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts4 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1949 · SMF → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?