UA 1979 · IAH → SAN

departs 4:19 PM CT · arrives 5:53 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

29% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1979 · IAH → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?