UA 1986 · SFO → OGG

departs 10:22 AM PT · arrives 1:10 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OGG?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
9%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 333 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at OGG that day

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ This flight has been late 17% of the time recently

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OGG (destination) Gusts34 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.27 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1986 · SFO → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?