Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2003 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

UA 2003 · EWR → YVR

departs 10:44 AM ET · arrives 1:39 PM PDT

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at YVR more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YVR?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 10am departures from EWR are often late

↑ EWR is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Arrivals into YVR at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YVR (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,033 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2003 · EWR → YVR

Odds over time

How late will it get to YVR?