UA 2022 · SJU → IAD

departs 7:20 AM AT · arrives 11:21 AM ET

Your aircraft is N17566 (B39M), coming in as UAL2025 from IAD: landed 9:19 PM AT.

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at IAD that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJU

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 7am departures from SJU are usually not late

Weather at each end

SJU (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

IAD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2022 · SJU → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?