Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2024 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

UA 2024 · SJU → IAD

departs 4:55 PM AT · arrives 8:56 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJU

↑ 4pm departures from SJU are often late

↓ This flight has been late 15% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft forecast at IAD that day

Weather at each end

SJU (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

IAD (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2024 · SJU → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?