UA 2078 · PHX → EWR

took off 10:39 PM MT · expected to land 5:45 AM ET (scheduled 10:28 PM MT → 6:11 AM ET)

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to EWR?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 10pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2078 · PHX → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?