Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2176 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

UA 2176 · ORD → JAC

departs 9:27 AM CT · arrives 11:41 AM MT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at JAC more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JAC?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JAC (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2176 · ORD → JAC

Odds over time

How late will it get to JAC?