UA 2198 · LAX → IAH

departs 3:22 PM PT · arrives 8:43 PM CT

Your aircraft is N47470 (B39M), coming in as UA 2833 from IAH: landed 1:31 PM PT.

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ This flight has been late 12% of the time recently

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2198 · LAX → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?