UA 2218 · EWR → IAD

departs 7:56 PM ET · arrives 9:16 PM ET

Your aircraft is N820UA (A319), coming in as UA 1892 from CLE: landed 3:16 PM ET.

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 7pm departures from EWR are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2218 · EWR → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?