UA 2282 · SFO → LAX

took off 5:52 PM PT · expected to land 6:47 PM PT (scheduled 5:44 PM PT → 7:17 PM PT)

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAX?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from SFO are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2282 · SFO → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?